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Natural Gas industry organizations and governments project unfettered production growth into the foreseeable future. Can this optimism be substantiated by the reality of market trends and available geological data? Here you can view projections by GRI (now GTI) that might persuade us to think that we have nothing to worry about.
Here are some of GRI's projections for demand:
[Click on images for detailed views]

Oil and gas production will continue to grow. It's easy. Just follow your nose. |

Now look just at how gas gets used, speculate about future demand, |

... and project electricity's share of future gas demand. |

Here GRI identifies the different actors who will produce electricity from gas, |

... where the growth is expected to occur, |

... and the resultant consumption of gas to generate electricity, by category. |
Everything is on the up and up here. No obstacles in sight.
So now, where will all this growth come from? Let's look at the supply side of the equation:

The logical first step: Propose ongoing domestic sources, even if they don't exist. Optimism reigns supreme. Is unfettered growth of a non-renewable resource believable if they don't show the inexorable decline? (Do you suppose their spread sheet ran out of columns?) |

Well, then, how about gas from Canada? The USA is importing 60% of Canada's current supply, so here GRI says there is more for the taking. After all, it's only money! |

How about off-shore? Do you seriously think that anyone would be looking for gas in 6,000 feet of water if anywhere else were easier? |

How about bringing technology to the rescue? It worked before, why not now? |

After all, drilling has become more efficient, or are they simply telling us that rigs have gotten bigger and faster? |

Would they fudge the numbers with reserve growth? |

... even if by their own admission, it isn't there!? |

... and yields are declining? By the way, why did they truncate this graph at the year 2000? |

In conclusion, may we infer from this graph that imports will continue to make up for any deficits? |
Merchant electrical generators are building or proposing gas-fired power plants that will only create ever greater dependency on a dwindling resource. Isn't it about time for the energy industry to get serious about alternatives to oil and natural gas?
These graphs are taken from the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand -- 2000 Edition [large HTML file]
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