Home Page 2002

by Webmaster December 31, 2002 12:00

For several months the Webmaster has been preoccupied with business issues, so less new material has been added than previously. Critically useful information is to be found in the sections indexed at the left. Notwithstanding the looming threat of yet another major war over oil, here are a few highlights from 2002:

Tough Year, but the Oil and Gas Kept Flowing. BP issues its annual statistical review (details, pdf). Highlights: Total world reserves=1050.0 Gb of which OECD=85.0 (old and in the way), OPEC=818.8 (with false reserves a significant fraction), and Non-OPEC=165.8 ("diversity"). And UK "production" is down 6.6% [June 18]

Oil Experts Draw Fire for Warning. Global crude supplies could peak by 2010, warned participants in the two-day conference on oil depletion that began Thursday at Uppsala University, Sweden, Bruce Stanley, AP Business Writer • Abstracts of PresentationsASPO Press release [

Is FSU Oil Growth Sustainable? Read about the present oil price war between OPEC and Russia, Jean Laherrère, Petroleum Review [April]

"It appears that total [oil] discovery in 2001 was about 8 Gb including deepwater oil, and NGL. Although there remain the eternal uncertainties about the reliability of the data, it appears that the world's oil account has been running a deficit since 1981, as it continues to eat into its inheritance from past discovery....

...Apart from two sizeable finds, the 8 Gb of 2001 came from some 300 discoveries whose average size must accordingly be approaching the lower limit of viability. ... These results from the real world are compatible with the consensus estimate of the size of the endowment ... and confirm the thoroughly flawed nature of the USGS report of 2000 that has misled so many governments and international agencies." C. J. Campbell (Jean Laherrere, Graph) [April]

Now an MIT publication quotes an "expert" from Stanford arriving at an astounding conclusion, with incredible logic: Since predictions of an oil crisis have proven wrong in the past, we therefore have little to worry about. The author got one part right: "Years of cheap oil have slowed energy innovation to a crawl." [January/February]




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